Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 62911.201372 66549.800245 70191.565544 74107.179539 78195.324144 82334.846963 86840.397854
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 56993.280940 62543.765944 68258.381084 74572.746375 81345.186958 88381.850195 96236.678225
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 52520.895930 59339.399620 66517.727564 74619.807378 83491.430797 92891.620344 103585.991483
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 49269.404029 57045.069605 65384.938024 74965.038740 85634.544826 97121.064146 110390.315840
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 46430.951053 54937.906353 64213.280964 75033.218988 87262.264330 100609.373266 116230.820896
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 44661.505808 53867.789491 64051.908061 76092.734420 89876.610919 105099.405261 123116.728974
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 42404.919551 52092.494303 62957.625367 75968.016097 91041.644093 107873.443902 128003.380824
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 41169.255953 51411.413454 63040.491177 77123.502201 93613.316072 112205.305376 134642.860423
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 39835.883730 50533.791393 62823.453288 77866.378975 95656.740362 115897.856769 140533.482501
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 38227.366747 49247.835364 62054.201513 77893.724603 96808.214063 118517.505601 145156.023540
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 36669.969167 47952.952828 61210.421752 77772.684821 97733.774044 120835.792877 149402.644085
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 35904.756029 47585.301978 61446.373677 78917.299394 100146.327271 124896.630704 155709.476620
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 35000.150118 47022.670562 61433.467332 79761.019765 102214.677902 128585.676814 161638.646375
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 33935.372486 46219.279510 61091.898102 80176.486343 103748.765304 131634.937078 166819.936587
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 32753.590130 45222.305232 60470.246000 80210.367161 104788.973006 134073.498338 171264.020671
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 31801.529772 44481.784243 60136.211959 80572.818557 106211.773589 136964.434864 176257.698407
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 30772.264188 43603.511079 59594.572465 80644.372238 107250.395926 139373.318220 180662.785921
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 30276.082783 43400.100073 59894.203177 81766.478017 109595.082891 143389.167300 187054.818481
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 29256.389117 42470.912159 59231.300810 81634.357055 110341.838782 145420.825622 191001.948579
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 28872.984549 42373.316258 59631.524874 82858.064454 112802.307775 149587.058246 197613.214564
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 28326.924723 42036.489356 59703.172484 83644.692986 114701.046164 153056.395372 203373.939235
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 27496.370997 41286.793579 59208.679059 83673.647292 115614.209615 155282.568627 207583.577529
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 26641.728045 40477.638564 58611.289240 83545.485011 116307.415273 157221.251574 211431.139007